Thursday, October 29, 2009

MVP Race - Week 7

by Mike W.

I've developed a formula for MVP, as of now it is rough, but I'll continue to tinker it. It also only contains offensive players. I am going to update it every Tuesday from now on.

*Formula updated. The formula is progressive. There will be changes each week.

Here it is:

1 T. Brady 104.16
2 D. Brees 103.38
3 A. Rodgers 101.40
4 A. Peterson 100.22
5 P. Manning 97.57
6 R. Wayne 95.53
7 A. Johnson 95.36
8 R. Brown 95.23
9 M. Jones-Drew 94.62
10 B. Favre 93.04
11 D. Jackson 92.58
12 K. Orton 92.49
13 R. Moss 91.81
14 P. Rivers 91.13
15 V. Jackson 90.92
16 C. Benson 90.80
17 M. Schaub 90.33
18 B. Roethlisberger 90.31
19 S. Smith (N) 90.02
20 T. Jones 88.44

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

The Core- Atlanta Falcons

Lets go over the qualifications to make my list. In order to be a "core" guy, you must
A) Be drafted by the current team or signed as a rookie free agent, or signed as a free agent before the player ever appeared for another team
B) Have 4 or less years of experience
C) Drafted 3rd round or later

Atlanta Falcons

Chris Owens, CB, 3rd round, 2009
Atlanta's biggest flaw could be secondary, but the team hopes Owens can turn that around. A physical corner with a bit of upside, he could play a big role in the team's future.

Lawrence Sidbury, DE, 4th round, 2009
Sidbury is a smart player who needs to learn to play more fundamentally sound. John Abraham isn't getting any younger, and the team would love to see Sidbury become his successor.

Kroy Biermann, DE, 5th round, 2008
An absolute steal in the 5th round, Biermann is already a starter in Atlanta. He is undersized, but he is wreaking havoc off the edge. He had two sacks in the season opener and is only getting better.

Thomas DeCoud, S, 3rd round, 2008
A huge building block in the secondary, DeCoud already has two interceptions in his 6 starts this season. He could be the future at safety in Atlanta.

Jerious Norwood, RB, 3rd round, 2006
While this pick was two regimes ago, Norwood is still a valuable player no matter who's in charge. He averages 5.7 yards a carry in his career and is a great change of pace for the bruising Michael Turner.

Jason Snelling, RB, 7th round, 2007
The third cog in this dangerous backfield, Snelling is coming on of late. He is arguably the most versatile fullback in the league and they are only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.

Brent Grimes, CB, Undrafted, 2006
After honing his skills in NFL Europe and the practice squad, Grimes was elevated to the starting role early last season. While he eventually relenquised the job, he is still a solid contributor in the secondary and is back in the starters role following Brian Williams' injury.

Stephen Nicholas, LB, 4th round, 2007
Another mid-round pick, another starter. Nicholas has stepped in this year and is playing well. He could be a future star.

Harry Douglas, WR, 3rd round, 2008
A torn ACL ended Douglas' 2009 season early, he showed just what he can do in 2008. Douglas tasted paydirt via punt return, rush, and a reception. He should be an integral part of the offense in 2010.

Chevis Jackson, CB, 3rd round, 2008
Jackson had 1 start last year and he also had a 95 yard pick six in his rookie season. He hasn't seen much time in the secondary this season, but he has the most upside of any player in the defensive backfield.

Overall forecast:
Despite three different regimes since 2006, Atlanta has still built an impressive talent base, especially on defense. Many of these players are starting already, and contributing immensely to the 11th ranked defense. The Falcons have one of the best young rosters in the league, and could be here to stay.

Monday, October 26, 2009

The Core- Arizona Cardinals

The Core
Every team has its stars. The one player who can singlehandedly change a game in a flash. They are coveted across the league. But every player on your team can't be a star. Not only are they few and far between, they also command a load of money. The salary cap prevents you from having too many of these guys on your team. So how do you fill out the rest of your roster? This, my friends, is the key to success in the NFL. The best teams in the league such as the Colts, Steelers, Patriots, and Giants build through the draft, stockpiling youth on the bottom of its roster. Then you have some teams, like the Redskins and Cowboys, sacrifice youth and depth for a few superstars.This usually backfires.

So you ask, if these players are so valuable, why do they go so low in the draft? Well, as the old adage goes, one man's trash is another man's treasure. A 245 college defensive end is useless to a 4-3 team, but he could emerge as a legit starter for a 3-4 defense. Some guys simply need refinement, and can sit behind an aging starter and learn their trade. Plus, a guy who doesn't do anything great but does everything well is very helpful when injuries strike.

Lets go over the qualifications to make my list. In order to be a "core" guy, you must
A) Be drafted by the current team or signed as a rookie free agent, or signed as a free agent before the player ever appeared for another team
B) Have 4 or less years of experience
C) Drafted 3rd round or later

It isn't asking much. Now lets go over each team's 10 "core" guys.

Arizona Cardinals

Tim Hightower, RB, 5th round draft pick, 2008
While he may have been in over his head last year, Hightower is a capable running back with a nose for the endzone. Starting may not be in his future, but with the two running back attack en vogue, he is a cheap and effective compliment to first round pick Beanie Wells.

Ali Highsmith, OLB, Undrafted, 2008
Highsmith was viewed as a draftable prospect for most of his senior season but wasn't selected and signed with the Cardinals. While he hasn't done much with the team yet, he is a solid contributor on special teams and he could become a valuable part of the linebacker rotation by 2010. The team has several aging LB's and also has Karlos Dansby unsigned through 2009. Changes are coming, and Ali should be a part of them.

Kenny Iwebema, DE, 4th round draft pick, 2008
Another player with minimal production so far, but he is a great fit in Arizona's morphing 3-4 defense. He is stout at the point of attack and may soon be able to anchor the edge. If he can stay healthy, he can work his way into the defensive line rotation sooner rather than later.

Lyle Sendlein, C, Undrafted, 2007
This is a player that defines what I am talking about. An undrafted free agent steps in and starts two games in his rookie season and goes on to start every game the next season, in the midst of a Super Bowl run nonetheless. He is an intelligent player who makes all of the line calls. Lyle will never be dominant, but that is a blessing in disguise, as he is never going to command big time money. He is just a solid and consistent starter. Can't ask for much more from a guy who was passed up by every team multiple times.

Steve Breaston, WR, 5th round, 2007
An absolute steal by the Cardinals scouting system, Breaston has emerged as possibly the best slot wide receiver in the NFL. He broke the 1,000 yard barrier in his second season and has continued to improve this season. A great sign that this team has a grasp on the players that fit their system, Breaston could soon be in for a big payday. But he may be a candidate to replace Anquan Boldin if he departs, and would clearly be cheaper.

Brandon Keith, T, 7th round, 2008
Keith is an enigma with a shaky off the field reputation. He is extremely gifted however and was headed to Oklahoma before he ended up at Northern Iowa. It is unknown whether he is best suited to be a guard or tackle, but either way he could be a contributor if he keeps his head in the game and continues to work.

Greg Toler, CB. 4th round, 2009
Toler has yet to contribute, but he is talented. An alum of St. Paul's College, he needs a lot of refinement. But the future is bright and Arizona is stocking up a young and talented secondary.

Early Doucet, WR, 3rd round, 2008
Another wide receiver? Well yes, Arizona throws A LOT. Doucet is extremely gifted but needs experience and teaching. He has ideal physical tools and could be a starter opposite a superstar like Larry Fitzgerald. He could get a shot if Anquan Boldin leaves at some point.

Michael Adams, DB, Undrafted, 2007
Adams will likely never be a starter, but he is experienced in the system and has some ability. He can play dime corner and should continue to provide depth for a few more years for next to nothing financially.

Will Davis, OLB, 6th round, 2009
A true project, Davis was a 205 pound WR as a freshman in college and moved to DE as a sophomore. He is now trying to learn how to play linebacker in the Cardinals diverse scheme. Size is a positive for Davis, and with a defense always looking for aggressive run stoppers, he could become a role player as early as 2010.

Overall forecast: Ken Whisenhunt has brought stability not seen in the Cardinals organization for decades. He has a solid, winning system in place and is slowly starting to stockpile talent for the future. As this roster becomes more and more of the exact model Whiz wants, the team continues in the right direction. They look set for years.

Tomorrow: Atlanta Falcons

Mike Odom's Thoughts and Ranting

Oakland Raiders- JaMarcus Russell has got to go. He is a team cancer, and his play is nothing short of disastrous. 46.3 completion percentage and a 2-8 TD/INT ratio is horrendous, and the mental mistakes are frequent. Oakland can't begin rebuilding until they ditch this lazy slob. The defense is solid, but they are far too inconsistent. The offense does them no favors by keeping them on the field constantly. Just an utter mess on that side of the ball. Awful quarterbacks, young and raw receivers, and a bad offensive line. They need an overhaul. One theory I hatched up is Oakland changing their philosphy entirely and drafting pro ready players from strong winning programs. Examples of current rookies are a Brian Cushing, Rey Mualauga, or a Eugene Monroe. They need to establish a winning mentality. The problem with taking "projects" is that Oakland lacks the system and teachers to mold players. Darrius Heyward-Bey is a raw player, learning how to play in a trainwreck of a situation with no mentor, no quarterback, and no hope.

Friday, October 23, 2009

6 Pack Stats of the Day 10/24/09

1. Warren Moon had a QB Rating over 100 twice in the playoffs. He lost both times.

2. Top 5 most 300 passing yard games, per decade:
1960's
Sonny Jurgensen, 24
Johnny Unitas, 22
Joe Namath, 16
George Blanda, 15
John Hadl, 13

1970's
Dan Fouts, 10
Jim Hart, 8
Ken Stabler, 8
Fran Tarkenton, 8
Ken Anderson, 7

1980's
Dan Fouts, 41
Dan Marino, 37
Joe Montana, 30
Boomer Esiason, 19
Phil Simms, 19

1990's
Warren Moon, 33
Steve Young, 28
Brett Favre, 26
Dan Marino, 26
Drew Bledsoe, 25

2000's
Peyton Manning, 46
Kurt Warner, 41
Drew Brees, 33
Brett Favre, 30
Trent Green, 28

3. Since 1970, the Bears have thrown for 3 TDs or more 43 times. Peyton Manning has done it 54 times in his career.

4. Since they returned to the league in 1999, the Browns have only had a player run for over 100 yards twice against the Steelers.

5. The Steelers have had an 100 yard rusher 12 times against the Browns in that span.

6. Priest Holmes is 5-6 when rushing for over 150 yards.

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady

Comparative Stats:

Colts are 31-21 (59.6%) when Peyton Manning passes for over 300 yards
Patriots are 23-2 (92.0%) when Tom Brady passes over 300 yards

Colts are 91-38 (70.5%) when Peyton Manning passes for under 300 yards
Patriots are 68-25 (73.2%) when Tom Brady passes under 300 yards

Not making a case for either, but Peyton gets an awful lot of credit when he passes for over 300 yards.

-Mike W.

6 Pack Stats of the Day 10/23/09

WR stats

1. Since 2007, the Cardinals are 2-3 when Anquan Boldin has 10 or more catches in a game. In that same span, they are 4-0 when Larry Fitzgerald achieves that feat.

2. Between 1998-2001, the Vikings were 17-6 when Randy Moss had 100 or more receiving yards. The team was 14-1 when Cris Carter had 100 plus, but 0-3 when Jake Reed recorded those numbers.

3. The Rams were 8-5 when Torry Holt had 100 or more receiving yards between 1999-2001. They were 9-2 when Issac Bruce had 100 or more, and 3-1 when Az Hakim went over the century mark.

4. From 2001-2008, the Colts are 21-14 when Marvin Harrison has 8 or more catches. They went 12-5 when Reggie Wayne had 8 snags.

5. Between 2000-2009, Randy Moss had the most 2 TD games in that span with 26. Terrell Owens had 25, and Marvin Harrison had 24.

6. The Patriots are 16-0 when Randy Moss has over 100 yards receiving. They are 8-1 when Wes Welker has 100 yards.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

6 Pack Stats of the Day

1. From 2000-2009, teams are 275-90 when a running back has at least
25 rushing attempts on the road.

2. In comparison, teams are 109-317 when a quarterback throws the ball 40 times
or more on the road in that span.

3. Those numbers dip to 5-5 when running backs get 25 carries on the road in the a playoff game, since 2000-2009.

4. Teams are 4-20 when their passer throws the ball 40 or more times on the road in the playoffs in that time.

5. The Cardinals are 3-9 in games when Anquan Boldin has ten or more catches.

6. From 2000-2009, the Ravens are 15-7 when a QB throws between 10 and 20 attempts. They are 38-45 when they attempt
more than 30 passes.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

2009: A Golden Age For Quarterbacks?

From the 1960's, with the likes of a Bart Starr, Johnny Unitas, Len Dawson, Jack Kemp, or Fran Tarkenton. Or how about the long ball throwers Terry Bradshaw, Ken Stabler, Roger Staubauch, and Bert Jones ruling the 70s? The 80's had some of the all time greats, like Marino, Montana, Elway, Fouts, and Kelly. And everyone knows Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Brett Favre, and Drew Bledsoe from the 1990's. But this is the beginning of a new era. Quarterbacks are being groomed and
pumped out at an astounding pace. Offenses are being tailored to throw the ball and throw it often. Is this the greatest crop of signal callers ever? Take a look at this numbers and you be the judge.

Here are the number of passers to have a quarterback rating over 100 through 6 weeks, with a minimum of 100 attempts.

1972: 1
1976: 2
1978: 1
1979: 1
1980: 2
1981: 1
1982: 1
1983: 4
1984: 4
1985: 2
1986: 1
1987: 2
1988: 3
1989: 2
1990: 4
1991: 1
1992: 2
1993: 1
1995: 3
1996: 1
1997: 1
1998: 4
1999: 2
2000: 3
2001: 1
2002: 3
2003: 2
2004: 4
2005: 3
2006: 2
2007: 5
2008: 4
2009: 8


Look at those last three years. 17 times. 17 times it has happened. In the remainder of this decade, it has happened 18 times. In the 90's, 19 times. During the golden years of the efficient West Coast offense, the 1980's, it happened
22 times. And only five times in the conservative 1970's had it occurred. Here is a list of the 12 quarterbacks who has achieved this the past two years:

Philip Rivers, Drew Brees (twice), Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, and Kyle Orton. Notable players who started for NFL teams that didn't reach this feat are Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, Joe Flacco, Carson Palmer, David Garrard, and Matt Cassel.

Are we in the midst of the greatest collection of quarterbacks ever? You decide....